5 big issues to watch Tuesday

By Jim Saunders

Of course, much of the national attention will focus on whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump will lead the country for the next four years. But here are five big Florida issues to watch:

— ABORTION: The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in June 2022 to overturn the decades-old Roe v. Wade abortion-rights ruling created a political firestorm.

Lawmakers in Republican-led states, such as Florida, seized on the decision to restrict access to abortions, with Florida law now preventing most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy.

But in states across the country — red and blue — the abortion debate also has played out in ballot measures. And so far, abortion-rights supporters have had the upper hand.

In perhaps the biggest political fight this year in Florida, voters will decide whether to enshrine abortion rights in the state Constitution. Gov. Ron DeSantis has led efforts to defeat what appears as Amendment 4 on the ballot. Unlike in other states, the amendment would need support from at least 60 percent of voters — rather than a simple majority — to pass.

— MARIJUANA: It might be an understatement to say a proposed constitutional amendment that would allow recreational use of marijuana has high stakes.

The Smart & Safe Florida political committee, which is sponsoring the proposed amendment, received more than $153 million in cash and in-kind contributions, with $144.6 million coming from the Trulieve cannabis company. Meanwhile, DeSantis and his administration have campaigned against the measure, including running controversial television ads trying to dissuade voters from supporting it.

The proposal, which appears as Amendment 3 on the ballot, comes eight years after voters passed a constitutional amendment to allow medical marijuana. That proposal received support from 71.3 percent of voters.

— LEGISLATIVE BATTLES: Armed with supermajorities in the House and Senate, Republicans have steamrolled Democrats during the past two years in Tallahassee.

Coming out of Tuesday’s elections, the GOP will still hold huge legislative advantages over Democrats. But the question is whether Democrats can chip away, flipping some Republican seats and protecting Democratic incumbents in contested districts.

Only one Senate district is in play, as Democrat Daryl Parks tries to unseat Sen. Corey Simon, R-Tallahassee, in a sprawling North Florida district. But in the House, Republicans and Democrats are in closely watched contests in the Orlando area, the Tampa Bay area and parts of Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties.

— DESANTIS’ POWER: DeSantis’ presidential campaign flamed out early this year, but that doesn’t mean he is any less ambitious. No matter who wins Tuesday’s presidential election, 2028 is just around the corner.

DeSantis has gone all in to try to defeat the proposed abortion and marijuana constitutional amendments. He has traveled the state to criticize the proposals, and state agencies under his control have run controversial television ads and taken other steps to try to undermine the measures.

It could be a high-risk, high-reward strategy for DeSantis, especially if the abortion amendment does not pass. He would be able to present himself to the Republican base as the governor who held off abortion-rights supporters.

— DEMOCRATS’ TEST: Follow the money. Sure, it’s a cliche. But in politics, it’s also true.

And while national Democrats made some head fakes about competing in Florida, they didn’t shovel money to the state to try to make it competitive in the presidential race or to help elect Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

But after years of decline, Florida Democrats need to come away with at least some victories Tuesday. One part of that would be to end up with an increase in Democratic-held legislative seats. Also, while supporters of Amendment 4 have made clear they view the ballot proposal as non-partisan, Democrats could celebrate if voters put abortion rights in the Constitution.